[정당론] 우리나라 지역균열의 감소-15,16,17대 대통령 선거 중심으로(영문)
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- 2011.10.18 / 2019.12.24
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<Contents>
1. Introduction
(including methodology and political background of regionalism)
2. The 15th presidential election
3. The 16th presidential election
4. The 17th presidential election
5. Conclusion
6. References
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Methodology
First of all, we assumed that there were two competing regions that candidates sought vote for. One is Honam region that includes all of Cholla province, Gwangju as the main city and the other is Youngnam region that includes Kyungsang province, Busan, Ulsan and Daegu as the representing cities.
We used two main methods to analyze the general flow of regionalism. First, to effectively examine regionalism we attempted to compare the vote results of two main candidates by region. By this method, we could see how specific parties were supported through the candidates. Second, we introduced the Party Conflict Index (PCI). We can calculate the PCI by subtracting the gained votes from unwelcoming regions from the gained votes depending on regions. Through this index, we are able to find out whether a region is neutral towards a party or a specific party is excluded at a region. The index has a scale from 0 to 1 and if a party is not dominated by a specific region and is not excluded by other regions as well it would have number close to 0. On the other hand, if a party is absolutely supported by a specific region and are severely excluded by other regions, it would have a number close to 1.
By using these two methods, we can clearly observe regionalism not only concerning the sentiment preferring to a particular party based on a specific region but also concerning the antagonism to a specific party having a basis on a particular region.
Development of regionalism and political background
Antagonism between Kyongsang province and Cholla province had already been formed under the Kyongsang based former presidents Park Chung-Hee, Chun Doo-Hwan and Roh Tae-Woo. While Kyongsang province developed including the establishment of industry facilities, Cholla province remained underdeveloped compared to Kyongasang province. Regionalism had existed during authoritarian rule but it can’t be considered as a social cleavage because it wasn’t structuralized determining the party system of South Korea.
South Korea’s regionalism was triggered when the nation was democratized in 1987 after the authoritarian regime collapsed. Under the authoritarian rule, many civilian leaders cooperated to fight for democracy against the military dictatorship. However, once democracy was achieved each opposition leader created their own party in order to prepare for the upcoming presidential elections. Two rival politicians at the time were Kyongsang province based Kim Young Sam and Cholla province based Kim Dae-Jung. In addition, the fact that the nation was finally democratized overcoming the long tenure of authoritarian rule and that it was a direct presidential election system in 16 years since April 27th 1971 elections, enhanced the citizens’ eagerness to vote.
Given this situation, the two political leaders chose to utilize regionalism as their election strategy or campaign vehicles. Each party created by the two leaders saw regional cleavage as a strong resource they could mobilize in order to gain support and win the 13th presidential election. All efforts were exerted to gain votes from each provinces and this election created the base for the regional cleavage to root deeply in Korean politics and voting behaviors of citizens. This cleavage structure formed by regionalism were strengthened and expressed at the following general elections and presidential elections.
2. The 15th Presidential Election and the regional cleavage
Election background
The 15th presidential election can be seen as a turning point in Korea. Periodically, the election opened the way to the 21st century and historically, the election had the potential to change political forces and make a smooth transition to a new regime. Most importantly, the election was during a time of economic hardship. After long years of development, Korea was catching up to the wealthy, developed nations and accepted to OECD. However, the ambitious financial liberalization of president Kim Young Sam had failed miserably. Some scholars claim that the reform had failed due to the absence of the state intervention and supervision. Regardless of the cause, the reform had failed and the Korean economy collapsed. Foreign capital outflow was rapid and short term loans couldn’t be solved. The government announced its economic failure and the IMF came in to restructure the economy according to the Anglo-American model (Jeong, 1998).
Candidate comparison: background and policies
The 15th Presidential elections had 3 runners: Kim Dae Jung, Lee Hoi Chang and Rhee In
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