[경제학] 리먼 브라더스 파산에 대하여(영문)
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- 2010.12.28 / 2019.12.24
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추천 연관자료
- 목차
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1. Review of the Lehman
2. Main reasons of Bankruptcy
Government’s Policy
Lehman Financial Policy
Subprime mortgage Crisis
3. The debt of Lehman when they bankruptcy
4. Our Opinions
Targets which take criticism
People damaged most
Bankruptcy was best choice?
Our opinion of Lehman’s Bankruptcy
Our alternatives of Bankruptcy
- 본문내용
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(1) Bubble increase of the housing industry.
Following is the background of Bubble increase of the housing market.
Easy Money Policy of FRB(Federal Reserve Board)
In the housing industry of USA formed mortgage-system, the interest-rate is the factor that decide market price and adjust the demand and supply of the housing market, and also is main channel of currency policy.
After 『dot-com Bubble』 bankruptcy in 2000, an excessive cheap money policy stance of FRB to stimulate economy contribute to revitalization of housing industry through mortgage finance.
The opening of 2000year, FRB had lowered Federal Fund Rate to 5.5% from 7.5%. So it offered a factor that make a bubble of housing industry through mortgage-loan.
Therefore FRM was reduced from 7.5% to 5.5% suddenly, ARM also was reduced from 7% to 4% rapidly.
Demand of houses because of low interest, reproviding fund through refinancing and so on, these things lead long terms Excess Demand by enhancing anticipation about increase of asset value.
In this way, cheap money policy of FRB relaxes Entry Barrier of low-credit borrower(specially sub-prime), so it works as a factor that increase rate of admission of housing market of sub-prime.
The picture below shows the low-loan policy of United States.
The housing price had risen very rapidly before 2005 year that cheap money policy was maintained and range of rising rate transcended the theoretical limits.
Robert Shiller’s positive analysis
Shiller, who is the ecomist, (Irrational Exuberance, 2005) indicated that increase of the housing price has exceeded 50% until 2005 and it is figure that is not justified theoretically. In this study ,that was published before 2005 that is year before that sub-prime insolvent was not seen directly, he warned the possibility that the housing industry would be stagnant because of sub-prime bubble.
For reference, in theory, in case FRF , if interest on money falls down 1%, the house price would increase 10%. So a 2% drop of the interest on a loan result in 20% increase of the house price.
Failure to control bubble by a tight-money policy
While liquidity increase through a cheap money policy contributed to growth of housing industry, increase of sub-prime admission rate with growth of housing industry worked as obstacle that blunted function to control the market by monetary policy.
Failure to extinguish early House price bubble and thus macroeconomy went worse.
FRB had enforced to raise the policy interest(1%-5%0 17times, but late Tight Money Policy had little function to control liquidity because of moral hazard of banking facilities, anticipation of asset bubble increase and so on.
Conversion of Monetary policy tone(interest rise) lost the p
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