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The Occasion for Decision
<The Relevant Decision Makers>
<Interpretation of the Situation>
<The U.S. Policy Options>
The Elementary of Crisis of US Selling Weapons to Taiwan (Risk of U.S. Selling Weapons to Taiwan):
- 본문내용
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2) Selling weapons to Taiwan
The Elementary of Crisis of US Selling Weapons to Taiwan (Risk of U.S. Selling Weapons to Taiwan):
1、Damage the relationship between U.S. and China:
The U.S. plan will definitely further undermine China-U.S. relations and bring about serious negative impact on exchanges and cooperation in major areas between the two countries, and lead to aftermath both sides are unwilling to see. This matter will take direct damages to the two countries relations, especially Sino-US military relations in the short term.
2、China will take sanctions to counter the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan:
1)、Sanctions on military:
A、Postpone bilateral military programs:
China has decided to partially halt the exchange programs between the militaries of the two countries.
B、Postpone security talks:
China will halt the vice-ministerial consultation on strategic security, arms control and anti-proliferation, which was originally scheduled to be held soon. 2)、Sanctions on the U.S. companies(punish certain U.S. companies):
China will impose sanctions on the U.S. companies involved in the arms sales to Taiwan.
3、China-U.S. cooperation on major regional and international issues will also be inevitably affected by the issue.
4、Growing anti-U.S. sentiment in China.
5. APPLYING CASE INTO RATIONAL ACTOR MODEL (ARROUND THE NOTION OF ‘LESS COST, MORE EFFECT’)
To judge whether the United States’ decision to sell weapons to Taiwan was rational choice or not, we try to apply a ‘Rational Actor Model’ framework here. A relevant one of principles of this framework is that a country has tendency to make a decision rationally. This means less cost, more effect.
If there are more costs than effects expected, we can regard this situation as non-rational decision. The opposite can be called to ‘rational dicision’.
November 17, 2009, On Joint press statement in Beijing,, President Obama and Hu stated that the U.S. side adheres to the one-China policy, abides by the three Sino-U.S joint communiqué, and respects China's sovereignty and the territorial integrity when it comes to the Taiwan question and other matter. The Chinese side appreciates his statements.1) And also they agreed to work together to continue to promote even greater progress in the growth of military-to-military ties. In formal case, U.S government says they don't support Taiwan independence. Then, we can have question. Was more worth selling weapons to Taiwan than U.S. keep relations with PRC? Can we say this decision was rational?
1) The view of Effect
As we mentioned above, the United States' 'One China policy' based on the three U.S-China joint communiqué and the Taiwan relations Act has guided our relations with Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. If the risks of conflict in the Strait were to decline, and cross-Strait cooperation was to increase, then the difficulties in implementing both the TRA and the three communiqué would diminish. Conversely, if Beijing employs coercion or Taiwan pursues de jure independence, the strains within the policy would mount and the ability to maintain the existent structure would erode, probably beyond repair. And in light of the preceding considerations, all three sides should be seeking to lower the temperature in the Strait and find means to increase confidence there. Expanding cooperation in the Strait is the only way to avoid conflict in the long run. According to 'Taiwan Relation Act', U.S. pursue to maintain peace, security, and stability in the western pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States.
Meanwhile, given the Joint communiqué with PRC, TRA with Taiwan, we can know America has been opposed to unilateral attempts by either side to change the status quo.
U.S commercial ties with Taiwan have been maintained and have expanded since 1979 Taiwan continues to enjoy export-import bank financing. Now the Taiwan has the 26th largest GDP with one of the largest ports in the world. U.S. is now Taiwan's third-largest trade partner taking 11.6% of Taiwan's exports and supplying 10.4% of its imports. Taiwan is the United States’ 10th-largest trading partner. As people on both side of the strait consider future economic steps, strong concerns remain on both sides of the Pacific about PRC military modernization and deployments.
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