[국제금융론] The relationship between FAFA and CR(영문)

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추천 연관자료

목차: Ⅰ. FAFA
Ⅱ. Country Risk; CR
1. What is the Country Risk?
2. A measuring apparatus of country risk
3. Cause of CR’s Occurrence
4. CR of Countries
Ⅲ. The relationship between FAFA and CR in Latin America Countries
Ⅳ. The relationship FAFA and CR in Korea
Ⅴ. Conclusion
Bibliography

본문내용: A country of High CR
▪ A country of High CR: China

▪ RISK ASSESSMENT
Good resilience in 2009 thanks to the economic stimulus programme with a rebound expected in 2010
The economy began to slow in 2008 due mainly to domestic imbalances (overcapacity in several sectors) and policies that remained restrictive too long. And these domestic factors were compounded by the contraction of exports from the 2008 fourth quarter. Bankruptcies in industries suffering from overcapacities and among low value-added export companies increased particularly in the Guangdong region. Thanks to the $586 billion fiscal stimulus programme, the expansionary monetary policy, and the Yuan stabilization policy, GDP growth nonetheless picked up in 2009 fuelled by a rebound of domestic demand itself underpinned by a strong expansion of credit. Investment, particularly in construction, increased rapidly while consumption, spurred by strong social spending, was very dynamic as attested by the rise of sales in the retail, automotive and home appliance sectors.
And this trend will likely continue in 2010. Domestic demand is expected to drive the economy with the net contribution of exports to growth expected to be near zero. A tightening of fiscal and monetary policy and acceleration in the pace of the Yuan appreciation will not likely be decided before the second half of the year.
Persistent weaknesses: risk of overcapacity and risk of default will bear watching in 2010
Default risk will continue to bear watching in some sectors, particularly low value-added sectors (textiles, shoes, toys) and sectors grappling with overcapacity (automotives, construction, steel), with the government working to move the economy up market. And with the stimulus program spurring investment, the risk of overcapacity will remain a central weakness of the Chinese growth regime in the medium term. The risk of speculative bubbles in the property and stock markets will likely remain limited. Strong demand in the property market naturally puts pressure on prices accentuated by the effects of the restrictive policy pursued by the government in 2007-2008, which delayed, even froze many projects and thus slowed the growth of supply. Furthermore, the demographic trend, urbanization, and middle class aspirations for more modern housing will durably support the property market. Meanwhile, despite the strong recovery of the Shanghai composite index, stock market capitalization in relation to GDP is far lower in China (32%) than it is in Japan (67%) or the United States (87%), which would mitigate the macroeconomic consequences of a possible crisis.
Strong financial position
China's financial position remains strong. The current account surplus will remain high this year despite a more rapid recovery of imports than exports (associated with the rebound of intermediate goods assemble in China). Foreign exchange reserves will thus remain very high.
Banking risk, however, has been increasing. After successive reductions of interest rates and the lifting of quotas on loans, the expansion of credit accelerated significantly in 2009. In a context of relatively lax risk management, asset quality will be likely to deteriorate with the amount of non-performing loans increasing. With the government ready, however, to recapitalize banks if necessary, systemic risk will nonetheless remain limited.
Deficiencies in the business environment
In the political arena, social risk has been growing in both rural and urban areas. The government is nonetheless expected to be able to hold social movements in check. Major governance shortcomings persist despite the recent progress in the regulatory framework.
6. Country risk and exchange rate correlation
The exchange risk associated with a foreign denominated instrument is a key element in foreign investment. This risk flows from differential monetary policy and growth in real productivity, which results in differential inflation rates. For example, if you are a U.S. investor and you have stocks in Canada, the return that you will realize is affected by both the change in the price of the stocks and the change of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Suppose that you realized a return in the stocks of 15% but if the Canadian dollar depreciated 15% against the U.S. dollar, you would make a small loss.

Ⅲ. The relationship between FAFA and CR in Latin America Countries
When a firm conducts transactions in different currencies, it exposes itself to risk. The risk arises because currencies may move in relation to each other. If a firm is buying and selling in different currencies, then revenue and costs can move upwards or downwards as exchange rates between currencies change. If a firm has borrowed funds in a different currency, the repayments on the debt could change or, if the firm has invested overseas, the

참고문헌: Bibliography

1. http://www.coface.com
2. http://en.wikipedia.org
3. http://commons.wikimedia.org
4. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr
5. http://ecos.bok.or.kr
6. http://news.naver.com

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